1-2d You have to know your problem-situation (and your web of ideas) as best as you can to judge the merit of new explanations

1-2g New theory is constrained in terms of what it can say, since it must either be consistent with existing theories, or contradict them but address the problems thereby raised
3-1c Know what your problems are
3-1d6 Constraints in the form of consistent style leave space for creativity and progress
9-2a3b Don’t pick up anything which has certain downside. Avoid bullshit.
2-1d ‘Ecosystem’ & ‘Thermodynamics’ & ‘Double-entry bookkeeping’ - Everything is connected, there is no free lunch

AN3C - People don’t want better, they want less crap
1-2f1b4 The content of a theory is in what it rules out (and how!)
3-1c3c2b Getting rid of your own misconceived notions alone can take you far enough
5-2c2a Prioritize bullshit avoidance over money and prestige. Don’t waste your time.
5-2c2a0 Avoiding bullshit takes you far enough. Maybe the extra bit comes from really knowing about yourself.

RUL3 - Ask at night how what you’ve learned that day fits into your web of ideas, and search for overlaps and contradictions. Most people do not do this.

1-2e You literally MAKE a decision by creating the best explanation that you can from the web of ideas that you have at the moment (i.e., abduction-guessing)
1-2e1 Be ambitious but leverage what you already know

But always remember: 1-2 We are fallible