4-1a4b2b2 History repeats and reverses

4-1a4b2b1 ‘One-of-those’ over one-off - Learn from history (not just from your ‘own’ experience)

4-1a4b2b2a Rules and leaders emerge from informal governance but they are a product of inscrutable social dynamics rather than thoughtful design

4-1a4b2b3 Time will tell because time can de-contextualize seeming necessities
12-1e Nothing is necessary = Everything is contingent
4-1a4b2a Silence can decontextualize-displace the negotiator from the negotiation

• 1950 as mirror point for centralization/Westernization to decentralization/de-Westernization

  • The Wild West ended in 1890s but the Internet opened new frontiers in 1990s
  • Indian-ancestral man running Britain
  • NYT + Russia vs Ukraine to NYT + Ukraine vs Russia
  • US was massive exporter and China was just market
  • China was stuffed with opium
  • America was unified. India and China weren’t.

• 20c was US vs Russia

• 21c will be about China vs Indian
  6-3b2.7 International Intermediate (e.g., Indian network) vs Chinese state (2040s)

• BRICs (Russia, China, India) as parallel UN (winners of WW2 - 80 years ago)

• Communism is now functioning and capitalism has crumbling societies with military propaganda

  • Christianism justified hierarchy in ancient Rome
    • Replace Christianism with Communism and Rome with China
      [文化・思想と経済・インセンティブは一体]
      1-1a2e7d 文化とは生きること・生きることは情報文化にかかわること
      1-1a2e7d1 To live = To live culturally = To live economically
      2-1a6a Understanding incentives amounts to understanding its culture
    • 12-1a2b3 Left eventually becomes the right, not ideologically but economically and systematically

• Internet is to America what America was to Britain

  • Internet values are to the West what the West was to the Christendom
    • Even early Americans took some time to be independent from Britain
    • India can be big part of the internet
      6-3b2.5 India (or any other country-company-community) can act as the tech-media superpower of de-Americanization-dollarization movement
  • 2-1a0 ‘Creative destruction’ - Think outside the box. Evolution of ideas must be revolutionary. Knowledge creation involves rebellion against current explanatory framework.
    • 12-1a2b3 Left eventually becomes the right, not ideologically but economically and systematically
      • 6-3b2b Interoperability implies composability
      • However, 12-1a2b4 Blockchains can change the course of history, in the sense of how history unfolds because 8-2b Crypto will disrupt everything because it can change how organizations are formed, monetized, and exited. It could take decades to play out.

• A similar tripolar configuration has happened before

  • NYT, CCP, BTC = the Soviet, the Nazis, the Americans
    • Networks > States

• AI will do what coal/oil did to us

  • Algorithmic TikTok is not about follows
    • Analogy: 8-4b1 There will be AI-first applications

• 5-3c1 One of the lessons from the last era of the internet is that if a service needs to be built, it will probably get built — if not as a public good, then as a private good

  • Power must be organized collectively just like unions bargain collectively
    • We must remember the lesson learned with search in the 1990s
      • Because it can happen again
        • Can we avoid the worst case scenario by using blockchains?

• Creators must be organized and bargain as a group

  • The same reason labor unions bargain collectively
  • Invert: in the case where this fails, what’s the potential end-goal? What should I do?
    • Remember Naspers (news publisher turned to internet investor)
      • 1-2g2u1 Don’t take neo-Darwinism too seriouslydevelop
        • 3-1c3c3 Take ideas seriously, but not too seriously. Don’t be the idea.

• Recentralization is a cycle back to centralization from one vantage point but a step forward from another

  • Current information explosion = the Reformation (the Protestants, the Lutherans, and then the Baptists had to attract people to their interpretations)
    • 2-1a Information is in the difference. No difference, no information. 情報とは差異. 区別のないところに情報は生まれない.

• Mapmaking + Print capitalism = State formation

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8-1c3a Internet turned everyone into publisher. Crypto can turn everyone into investor.
8-1c3a1 Internet vs Telecom will recur in Crypto vs Financial Services
8-1c3b Farming became the most common job during the 19th century
8-1c3c Manufacturing became the most common job during the 20th century
8-1c4d1a Writing pre-internet era was mostly about English literature