“How often someone is right is largely irrelevant in the real world. The antifragile can lose for a long time with impunity, so long as he happens to be right once; for the fragile, a single loss can be terminal. You were wrong for years, right for a moment, losing small, winning big, so vastly more successful than the other way (actually the other way would be bust). Look at it again, the way we looked at entrepreneurs. They are usually wrong and make “mistakes”—plenty of mistakes.” — Nassim Taleb
Track records do matter, but what counts cannot be counted easily.
Related Note:
2-1b2b2 ‘Multiplying by zero’ - Be risk-prone but avoid ruin at all cost—avoid irreversible mistakes
3-1c3c3a2 Time spent doesn’t mean much
4-1a5 Don’t get obsessed with the failure rate, because what matters is where it’s going and not where it came from
To Be Explored:
Do we have to know the consensus of other market participants? And if so, is the price the consensus? Or something else?develop
Inspired by ハトの理論