5-1b2 Don’t invest in prediction, because knowledge is inherently unpredictable

“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face” – Mike Tyson

“I like to steer the boat each day rather than plan ahead way into the future.” – Henry Singleton

No masterplans—this is how Buffett and Munger operated.

Next:

• 5-1b2.1 Don’t invest in prediction, because the Black Swan is inherently unpredictable
• 5-1b2a The “Doubt-Avoidance Tendency” - people want certainty-predictability-control over accuracy-reality
• 5-1b3 How much we can change is also unpredictable

Related:

• Keep reacting—adapt to reality as it is
  • 1-1a5b4.4 Real-time calibration (i.e., recalibration) lets you adapt to the changing landscape
  • 3-1a4b1.3 Your circle of competence can be widened, deepened, made clearer
• Multidisciplinary perspective is important, but equally important is the ability to adjust one’s perspective across time (“the kind of propensity to disbelieve by changing your previous conclusions”)
  • 2-1a1 ‘The map is not territory’ - Find many maps as possible, across globe-time-fields, and try to bring your map closer to the territory as possible (i.e., reality)
• Masterplan implies expectations
  • 5-2a Check your growth rate of expectations vs circumstances. The former is hard to measure. But remember - you get what you measure.
• 5-1b1a8a1 Prediction ≠ Knowledge (because prediction requires knowledge)
• 7-2a Be opportunistic and flexible globally rather than inverting locally and prematurely optimized
• 11-2a Invest for the wealth it can generate, not for the money per se
  • 9-2a4 Specifically, be long volatility with people’s ability to create new knowledge
    • E.g., ETH communities
• AN3C - There is no way a training could prepare a man for combat

Instead, bet on universality.Universalitydevelop