2-1a7a4 In the long run reality gets in; narrative can get you so far

“If you don’t deal with reality, then reality will deal with you” – Alex Haley

“You can fool people some of the time but not forever; when you get old you’ll get the reputation you deserve” – Warren Buffett

“Even if decarbonization is a valid objective, the path chosen ignored Grid Resilience, Geopolitics, and just basic physics.” – Kaoboy

“We are mid-cycle now—past the point where stocks will reward investors for further buildout, and getting into the period where the true costs and the lack of revenue will start to show themselves.” – Michael Burry (20260110)

“Right now, we will see one of two things: either Nvidia’s chips last five to six years and people therefore need less of them, or they last two to three years and the hyperscalers’ earnings will collapse and private credit will get destroyed.” – Michael Burry (20260110)

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• 2-1a7a2 Assets with actual substance or weight have the best prospects over the long term

Next:

• 2-1a4b 百聞は一見に如かず - Build, Show, Use ＞ Explain, Tell, Research
  • 2-1a7a5 Build day by day unless anything fundamental (‘the core’) changed. Superficial-uncontrollable criteria (e.g., share price) matter less.

Related:

• 1-1a5b4.4 Real-time calibration (i.e., recalibration) lets you adapt to the changing landscape
• 1-2g2s7b2 The laws of physics determine what’s rare-common, probable-improbable, finite-infinite
• 3-1a4b2a A great business at a fair price is superior to a fair business at a great price
• 3-1a4b4a Financial cycles ≠ Product cycles but only to an extent—remember the triad
• 5-1 When you are long truth you are long volatility and time
• 5-1b4 Be prepared to deal with short-term nonsenses, but know what you’re focused on in the long-run and stay optimistic
• 5-2c2b0.3 The way you become resistant to volatility is not by being robust or antifragile per se but by being one with the reality
• 5-2c2b3 ‘When you punt something into the future, the future eventually arrives’