5-2c2b The Lindy effect

“I very frequently get the question, ‘What’s going to change in the next ten years?’ And that is a very interesting question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question, ‘What’s not going to change in the next ten years?’ And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two, because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time.” – Jeff Bezos

Next:

• 5-2c2b0 The truer and deeper the idea is, the more likely it will survive criticism, change in society, and withstand unpredictable consequences brought about by itself
• 5-2c2b0.1 Invest in what can’t be easily disrupted
• 5-2c2b1 Focus on the fundamentals, on the deeper ideas closer to abstract knowledge, on what matters, and build yourself (including technology) around it

Related:

• Ask: what doesn’t change?revisit
  • 5-1b4a Amara’s law - we expect too much in the short-run, but too little in the long-run
    • 3-1d6c Amara’s law modified - we underestimate the importance of consistency in the short-run, but overestimate in the long-run
    • 5-1b4a0 We overestimate the technological impact in the next 10 years, but underestimate the next 20 (and often right about 15 years later)
• 2-1a5a Evolution doesn’t care about lifetime of each individual gene-meme carrier (its sample is beyond your own experience and any human lifetime)
  • 5-1b4b1 Life’s evolution’s superpower is its time horizon. 3.8 billion years of miniscule changes compounded.

Contradictory:

• 5-2c2c The probability of extinction is effectively independent of its age (Van Valen)
• 5-1a4.1 The world is becoming ever more transparent and unpredictable. You have to be nice, but you can’t be nice to everybody all the time unless you really are nice to begin with.

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