5-2c2b The Lindy effect

Next:

• 5-2c2b0 The truer and deeper the idea is, the more likely it will survive criticism, change in society, and withstand unpredictable consequences brought about by itself
• 5-2c2b1 Focus on the fundamentals, on the deeper ideas closer to abstract knowledge, on what matters, and build yourself (including technology) around it

Related:

• Ask: what doesn’t change?revisit
  • 5-1b4a Amara’s law - we expect too much in the short-run, but too little in the long-run
    • 3-1d6c Amara’s law modified - we underestimate the importance of consistency in the short-run, but overestimate in the long-run
• 2-1a5a Evolution doesn’t care about lifetime of each individual gene-meme carrier (its sample is beyond your own experience and any human lifetime)
  • 5-1b4b1 Life’s evolution’s superpower is its time horizon. 3.8 billion years of miniscule changes compounded.

Contradictory:

• 5-2c2c The probability of extinction is effectively independent of its age (Van Valen)
• The world is becoming ever more transparent and unpredictable. You have to be nice, but you can’t be nice to everybody all the time unless you really are nice to begin with.

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