5-1b4a Amara’s law - we expect too much in the short-run, but too little in the long-run

大功は緩にあり、機会は急にあり – 渡辺崋山

“Ecosystems develop very slowly, and then all at once” – Balaji Srinivasan

“New markets do emerge, but they develop slower than acutely incentivized futurists believe. Demographics and total addressable market (TAM) are too often marketing gimmicks not grounded in reality.” – Michael Burry

I think our tendency to minimize energy output combined with the fact that we can use symbols explains why this is the case.revisit

Turnaround seldom turns, and even when it does it usually takes longer and costs more than you think. But when it happens it happens faster than you think.

Also, if you keep rolling (i.e., being inconsistent), you’ll end up expecting too much all the time

Previous:

• 5-1b4 Be prepared to deal with short-term nonsenses, but know what you’re focused on in the long-run and stay optimistic

Next:

• 5-1b4a0 We overestimate the technological impact in the next 10 years, but underestimate the next 20 (and often right about 15 years later)
• 5-1b4a1 Don’t be a depressive realist or a blissfully unaware. Be a rational optimist.
• 5-1b4b Compounding is usually too slow to notice. You have to be deliberate in how you think and what you see.

Related:

• 1-1c6a3.1 Really good opportunities aren’t often and won’t last long
• 2-1a0c1 ‘Failure comes from a failure to imagine failure’
• 2-1b2d1 Consistency builds trust
• 2-3b0 Knowledge creation is not a function of time
• 3-1c3c4.2 “Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect”
• 3-1c3c4.3 “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful”
• 5-1b3 How much we can change is also unpredictable
• 5-1b4c1c Align your short-term reward with your long-term vision
• 5-2a Check your growth rate of expectations vs circumstances. The former is hard to measure. But remember - you get what you measure.
• 7-1d1b Look for technology which haven’t gotten a lot of press yet because it’s really new from labs, or because people assume it’s “dead” although doesn’t explain why
• 7-1d1d You can use technology people assume is “dead”
• 9-4b2a1f Two-way debate benefits from criticism
  • Warren Buffett: “Try to formulate the opposing argument better than the opponents”
    • <> 2-1a3 ‘Seeing the front’ - Incorporate what can’t be explicated
    • <> 2-1a6c3 ‘Global and local maxima’ - Don’t prematurely overoptimize. Occasionally throw in some ‘randomness’.
• 12-1e0 Everything changes
  • 5-1b2 Don’t invest in prediction, because knowledge is inherently unpredictable
• 13-1a3.0 Return is about how much, when you expect to get it, how sure you are—in comparison with other possible returnsdevelop
• RUL3 - Write out your goals. It’s amazing how few people do.
• AN3C - Don’t write the essay readers expect - one learns nothing from what one expects - be surprising.

Counter-measure

• 2-1a0c1d1 Focus on the few variables