5-1b4a Amara’s law - we expect too much in the short-run, but too little in the long-run

大功は緩にあり、機会は急にあり – 渡辺崋山

Explain why this is the caseTODO

Turnaround seldom turn and usually takes longer. It takes longer and costs more than you think. But when it happens it happens faster than you think.

Previous:

• 5-1b4 Be prepared to deal with short-term nonsenses, but know what you’re focused on in the long-run and stay optimistic

Next:

• 5-1b4a0 We overestimate the technological impact in the next 10 years, but underestimate the next 20 (and often right about 15 years later)
• 5-1b4a1 Don’t be a depressive realist or a blissfully unaware. Be a rational optimist.
• 5-1b4b Compounding is usually too slow to notice. You have to be deliberate in how you think and what you see.

Related:

• 2-1a0c1 ‘Failure comes from a failure to imagine failure’
• 2-3b0 Knowledge creation is not a function of time
• 5-1b3 How much we can change is also unpredictable
• 5-1b4c1c Align your short-term reward with your long-term vision
• 5-2a Check your growth rate of expectations vs circumstances. The former is hard to measure. But remember - you get what you measure.
• 7-1d1b Look for technology which haven’t gotten a lot of press yet because it’s really new from labs, or because people assume it’s “dead” although doesn’t explain why
• 7-1d1d You can use technology people assume is “dead”
• 12-1e0 Everything changes
  • 5-1b2 Don’t invest in prediction, because knowledge is inherently unpredictable
• 13-1a3.0 Return is about how much, when you expect to get it, how sure you are—in comparison with other possible returnsdevelop
• RUL3 - Write out your goals. It’s amazing how few people do.
• AN3C - Don’t write the essay readers expect - one learns nothing from what one expects - be surprising.