2-1b2 Play in different time horizon. That is, in the long-run.

Relate with how game has to have specific time horizon for it to be game (e.g., see 安田隆夫)TODO

RUL3 - Bounded commitment - choose one best thing available, commit for predetermined time period, then revisit. Similar to balancing depth-first vs breadth-first in search algorithms. Think of your time as quantifiable resource like capital.

Next:

• 2-1b2a ‘Seizing the middle’ - ‘Time is the friend of someone who is properly positioned and the enemy of someone poorly positioned.‘

Related:

• When you are deliberate you’ll extend yourself in the timeline:
  • 3-1c1d0 We are overconsuming novelty (and “serendipity”) and under-consuming purpose. The first thing to look at each day should be your purpose and metrics to improve upon, not some random stories.
• 3-1d6c Amara’s law modified - we underestimate the importance of consistency in the short-run, but overestimate in the long-run
• 5-1b4 Be prepared to deal with short-term nonsenses, but know what you’re focused on in the long-run and stay optimistic
• 5-1b4a Amara’s law - we expect too much in the short-run, but too little in the long-run
  • 5-1b4a0.1 New is overvalued relative to great
• 5-1b4c2 No wonder why someone who is having fun is genuinely great at what they do. Because you have to have fun to achieve great things.
  • You are more susceptible to stay if you love the game—but this is contingent with you being the low cost operator
    • 3-1a4b8 With few exceptions, buy on the cheapest market and sell on the dearest leads to satisfaction of the most highly valued ends of each individual, both as consumer and as a producer
    • Michael Burry: “The secret to Google search was always how cheap it was, so that informational searches that were not monetizable (and make up 80% or more) did not pile up as losses for the company.”
• RUL3 - Create something, or become someone, that is hard to duplicate (‘Barriers to entry’)
• Some cautionary notes in praxeological terms:revisit
  • 13-1a3a4a The actual market prices are the only ones that ever exist
  • 13-1a3a4b The long run of the evenly rotating economy (ERE) is not real at all, but a very useful theoretical construct that enables the economist to point out the direction in which the market is moving at any given time

E.g.,

• Bearstone on Jared Isaacman and Shift4: “Part of the strategy was, at the time, heresy: he gave away the expensive hardware for free. Most of his competitors couldn’t or wouldn’t make that leap. They were addicted to the certainty of upfront hardware profit. They didn’t want to carry the hardware subsidy on their books or take on underwriting risk. Isaacman did.”

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In general, and specifically in investment, you can—and probably should—play both the short-run and the long-run.

Target share (and target price derived from it) matters, but you have to think about your own time horizon. Know your exit strategy.

Related:

• 2-1b2b5 Know the correlations between your bets. Holy grail is fifteen or so uncorrelated bets.
• 5-1b1a4 We can run multiple billion-dollar functions either sequentially or simultaneously. Or preferably both.
• 8-2d2 In digital world, you can be in multiple nations (or equivalents) at the same time
• 9-4b2c You can host multiple memes both consequentially or simultaneously during your lifetime. A gene in contrast can be hosted only once per life-cycle.
• 11-4 Diversification can achieve what multiplicity does in the digital
• 13-4b The multiverse implies the scarcity of time in each universe
• RUL3 - Bounded commitment - choose one best thing available, commit for predetermined time period, then revisit. Similar to balancing depth-first vs breadth-first in search algorithms. Think of your time as quantifiable resource like capital.