“Don’t you see that the converse is equally valid? I have frequently gained my first real insight into the character of parents by studying their children.” – Sherlock Holmes
“By the method of exclusion, I had arrived at this result, for no other hypothesis would meet the facts.” – Sherlock Holmes
“All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.” – Charlie Munger
Study weaknesses and mistakes.
Since you cannot predict the future, Mungerian inversion inverts the inverted—primarily human follies. The usual inversion, on the other hand, inverts the positive (i.e., desired end) instead of the negative (i.e., unwanted consequences).
Related:
- 2-1b2b1 ‘Inversion’ - Avoid stupid obvious bullshit you’d regret in the future
- 2-1b2b2 ‘Multiplying by zero’ - Be risk-prone but avoid ruin at all cost
- 3-1b0 Think forward, but also think in reverse via inversion
- 3-1b1 Occasionally revisit the problem itself. Occasionally check in on long-term.
- 3-1b1a Often the real insight is in the question and not in answer
- 5-1b2 Don’t invest in prediction, because knowledge is inherently unpredictable
- 5-2a2 What gets measured gets managed
- 5-2c2a0 Avoiding bullshit takes you far enough. Maybe the extra bit comes from really knowing about yourself.
- 10-2g3d1.1 Humans create their own cause