From Warren Buffett (p. 21) and Charlie Munger (p. 29):
- Tech is usually unpredictable, and only few will win big (p. 21)
- 2-1a1a4a ‘Probabilistic thinking’ - Do not assume miracles!
- But in the greater scheme of things, even if your expectations turn out to be wrong and you end up doing worse than “the average” it’s not the end of the world—because as long as there’s progress going about you might end up richer in the real sense of the word.
- To associate the former with being poorer assumes a zero-sum game in a static environment—unfortunately a prevalent assumption.
- Of course when you are wrong and the way you are wrong hurt you (i.e., if you take stupid risk—wrong wrongly, as it were), you will be poorer both in nominal and real terms.
- Instead what you have to understand is the non-linear impact from knowledge creation: a man can change the world and himself be very rich, but at the same time his invention can benefit the society as a whole—the game is positive-sum where there is knowledge creation.
- Just that such “benefit” cannot be quantified meaningfully, since knowledge creation literally changes the game.
- Metrics to measure such non-linearity is probably better understood as our attempts to capture its game-changing nature (e.g., see Elie Ayache).revisit
- Just that such “benefit” cannot be quantified meaningfully, since knowledge creation literally changes the game.
- To associate the former with being poorer assumes a zero-sum game in a static environment—unfortunately a prevalent assumption.
Next:
Related:
- 1-2g3 The sphere of comprehensibility expands infinitely
- 7-1b4 You can solve problems that just became solvable
- Create technology that solves unsolved problems and you create a market
- Or use existent technology and solve hitherto thought of unsolvable problems
- E.g., most automation happens indirectly (8-1b2 Digital-physical is entwined)
- 2-1b2f ‘Equivalence’ - Reality doesn’t care genealogy. Solving problems is what matters. How it’s done matters less.
- 7-1a6a Successful founders see different problems
- E.g., Nvidia is now THE platform for AI infrastructuredevelop
- Jensen technically created new language (legacy CUDA) which translated mathematics used in machine learning for computers-processors
- E.g., Nvidia is now THE platform for AI infrastructuredevelop
- 7-1a6a Successful founders see different problems
- 2-1b2f ‘Equivalence’ - Reality doesn’t care genealogy. Solving problems is what matters. How it’s done matters less.
- E.g., most automation happens indirectly (8-1b2 Digital-physical is entwined)
- Or use existent technology and solve hitherto thought of unsolvable problems
- Create technology that solves unsolved problems and you create a market
- 7-1b5a You can create problems. Not in the sense of causing problems, but literally creatively creating them. There are good problems and bad problems. Work on and solve good problems.
- 8-1 The frontier