From Warren Buffett (p. 21) and Charlie Munger (p. 29):

  • Tech is usually unpredictable, and only few will win big (p. 21)
    • 2-1a1a4a ‘Probabilistic thinking’ - Do not assume miracles!
    • But in the greater scheme of things, even if your expectations turn out to be wrong and you end up doing worse than “the average” it’s not the end of the world—because as long as there’s progress going about you might end up richer in the real sense of the word.
      • To associate the former with being poorer assumes a zero-sum game in a static environment—unfortunately a prevalent assumption.
        • Of course when you are wrong and the way you are wrong hurt you (i.e., if you take stupid riskwrong wrongly, as it were), you will be poorer both in nominal and real terms.
      • Instead what you have to understand is the non-linear impact from knowledge creation: a man can change the world and himself be very rich, but at the same time his invention can benefit the society as a whole—the game is positive-sum where there is knowledge creation.
        • Just that such “benefit” cannot be quantified meaningfully, since knowledge creation literally changes the game.
          • Metrics to measure such non-linearity is probably better understood as our attempts to capture its game-changing nature (e.g., see Elie Ayache).revisit

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