5-2a Check your growth rate of expectations vs circumstances. The former is hard to measure. But remember - you get what you measure.

“Charlie and I have always preferred a lumpy 15 percent to a smooth 12 percent return.” – Warren Buffettdevelop

Have low expectations, and no have masterplans, and change your expectations when the facts change.

Get rich slow, and the same principle applies to businesses as well.

The opposite also applies in the sense that if the environment is changing, you have to adapt your expectations. Li Lu elaborates why societal and political reforms must recalibrate to new tech and scientific discoveries (which explains the difference between Civilization 2.0 and 3.0). Munger and Buffett essentially argues the same, but with more emphasis on psychology of the individual.

他人に期待せず自分を過信しなければ落ち込まない

Next:

• 5-2a0 Know what to measure
• 5-2a1 You get what you measure
• 5-2b Errors of omission are dangerous because you make them by default

Related:

• 1-1a5b4.4 Real-time calibration (i.e., recalibration) lets you adapt to the changing landscape
• 1-2e1 Be ambitious but leverage what you already know
• 2-1a0c1a ‘Influence of stress’ - ‘In the thick of battle, you will not rise to the level of your expectations, but fall to the level of your training’
• 3-1a0 Use categories, but don’t be categorized
• 3-1d6c Amara’s law modified - we underestimate the importance of consistency in the short-run, but overestimate in the long-run
• 5-1b1d1 Not investing is also a form of investing
• 5-2c2b0.2 You need resilience against volatility (i.e., Stoic robustness)
• 7-1a3 You’ll act when you target growth
• 7-1a4a1 Wealth created ≠ the P&L of a business. Remember - you get what you measure.
• 9-2a It’s easy to convince if people don’t know you enough for what you are not
• 10-1b Culture is set of ideas which affect behavior including unconscious ones like skills, expectations, and emotional preferences.
• 13-1a3a2e6 Money prices of the past influence current expectations, but today’s demand also influences the present price—and the influence of the latter can dwarf that of the former
• 13-1a3a2e8 The capital value—the “price of the good as a whole”—of any good at any time is based on expectations of future rental prices
• RUL3 - Any system should be measured by how much it can help with whatever its output.
• Get rich slow when applied to businesses
  • 2-1a7a2 Assets with actual substance or weight have the best prospects over the long term
    • 2-1a7a5 Build day by day unless anything fundamental (‘the core’) changed. Superficial-uncontrollable criteria (e.g., share price) matter less.
• Human psychology doesn’t change, but only to an extent
  • 5-2c2b The Lindy effect
    • 12-1e Nothing is necessary = Everything is contingent
• Civilization 2.0 mentality vs Civilization 3.0 mentality
  • 2-1c4 100x-ing the pie ＞ slicing extra few %