2-1a0c1 'Failure comes from a failure to imagine failure'

“You must expect failure after failure after failure before you succeed.” – Edwin Land

“Progress is a nice word. But change is its motivator. And change has its enemies. Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly” – JFK

“策に三策あるべし—A案・B案・C案・撤退” – 北尾吉孝 (SBI)

You need to know what you are aiming for (i.e., a measure of success—e.g., money earned), but also what would constitute as failures. You need to define errors, otherwise you wouldn’t correct them.

Know when to cut losses in advance, to advance.

Next:

• 2-1a0c1a ‘Influence of stress’ - ‘In the thick of battle, you will not rise to the level of your expectations, but fall to the level of your training’
• 2-1a0c2 Failing is inevitable, but do not fail epistemologically

Related:

• 1-2 We are fallible
  • You should expect to fail
    • → 9-2a3b0 Imagine what happens when it goes wrong—think first of the downside instead of the upside
• 1-2f1a Error-correction is the beginning of infinity. All jumps to universality occur in digital systems.
• 2-1b2b2 ‘Multiplying by zero’ - Be risk-prone but avoid ruin at all cost
  • Don’t lose
• 4-1a4b2b Being reactive is like being analog in the heat of the moment
  • Rules >>> Decisions
    • → RUL3 - The transparency principle - make your decision-making process as visible and open to scrutiny as possible
• 6-3d Be very specific about problems and divide a project clear cut so it doesn’t become bleak, like shared common room.
  • Austrian framework might be right but practically speaking useless, unless you measure it against something concrete, unless you zoom in what to test and where to look at
• In negotiations:
  • 4-1c Great negotiators actively try to reveal hidden assumptions, that is, they look for surprises. They are more than just being ready for them.
• In investment (and life in general):
  • 5-1b1 Invest in preparedness. Be redundant and resourceful in every aspect. Minimize opportunity cost to achieve great things.
  • 5-1b1a2c0 No theory can exhaust reality
  • 5-1b1b1a1.1 The more anomalies you’ve seen, the more easily you’ll detect new ones. Life should become more and more surprising as you grow older. It compounds.
  • 5-1b2.3 Don’t be the turkey—the Black Swan might be a Grey Swan depending on your perspective
  • 5-1b4 Be prepared to deal with short-term nonsenses, but know what you’re focused on in the long-run and stay optimistic
  • 5-2c2b0 The truer and deeper the idea is, the more likely it will survive criticism, change in society, and withstand unpredictable consequences brought about by itself
  • 5-2c2b1 Focus on the fundamentals, on the deeper ideas closer to abstract knowledge, on what matters, and build yourself (including technology) around it