“No, no. No crime…Only one of those whimsical little incidents which will happen when you have four million human beings all jostling each other within the space of a few square miles. Amid the action and reaction of so dense a swarm of humanity, every possible combination of events may be expected to take place, and many a little problem will be presented which may be striking and bizarre without being criminal.” – Sherlock Holmes
“Common diseases cause uncommon symptoms more often than uncommon diseases cause common symptoms.” – Medical maxim
“Some of us are too much attracted by the thought of rare things and forget the law of averages in diagnosis.“ – Thomas McCrae
Next:
- Being able to reason probabilistically means distancing from yourself, and can take you far enough:
Related:multiversedevelop
- 1-1c6a1d In the absence of evidence, do not assume miracles
- 1-2g2s7b1 The laws of physics provides the measure (provides a meaning to proportions and averages for infinite sets) for the multiverse
- 1-2g2s7b2 The laws of physics determine what’s rare-common, probable-improbable, finite-infinite
- 3-1a4a1 The whole must be evoked in explaining the parts
- 1-2g2s8 The unobserved parts of the wider phenomenon have in no way affected what we observe, yet they are essential to its explanation. Causation doesn’t exhaust explanation.
- 2-1a1a1b ‘Hanlon’s razor’ - We (they) are dumber and thus less ill-intent than we think we (they) are**
- **2-1a1a2 ‘Bias from incentives’ - Explicate your culture-incentive as much as possible
- 2-1b2c ‘Compounding’ - Permeate across the timeline**
- 5-1b4b Compounding is usually too slow to notice. You have to be deliberate in how you think and what you see.
- 3-1c1d1 Journalists distort our reality by 10,000x
- 3-1c1d4 We are bombarded with ‘unlikely’ events on our social media feed
- 3-1c1c You must build your own media for yourself
Remember: