2-1b2b2 'Multiplying by zero' - Be risk-prone but avoid ruin at all cost

You must avoid the risk of ruin at all cost, both collectively and individually, in multiplicative systems—and life is a multiplicative game.

Next:

• 2-1b2b3 Don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose
• 2-1b2b4 Look for value-added risk reducing trades
• 2-1b2b5 Know the correlations between your bets. Holy grail is fifteen or so uncorrelated bets.

Related:

• What matters are results over time and ensuring that 10 percent of the time won’t kill you. 5-1b4b3 Time beats timing.
  • E.g., 5-1b4b1 Life’s evolution’s superpower is its time horizon. 3.8 billion years of miniscule changes compounded.
    • Tl;dr - 2-1b2 Play in different time horizon. That is, in the long-run.
• 2-1a1a4a ‘Probabilistic thinking’ - Do not assume miracles!
• 2-1b2c ‘Compounding’ - Permeate across the timeline
• 2-3c ‘Surface area’ - Manage your exposure to volatilities
• 9-2a3b Don’t pick up anything which has certain downside. Avoid bullshit.
• 9-3 Increase surface area of luck
• RUL3 - Bounded commitment - choose one best thing available, commit for predetermined time period, then revisit. Similar to balancing depth-first vs breadth-first in search algorithms. Think of your time as quantifiable resource like capital.
• RUL3 - Invert, always invert

MentalModelsNumeracy

Win where you can (7-1a2a1 絶対に勝てるところから勝っていく, 1-2e1 Be ambitious but leverage what you already know). Sometimes you can’t afford to lose. Even once. In such cases, you can’t really recalibrate your ‘levels’ as in video games. The cost for overreaching in real life is much higher than in video games. There are times where you must win without losing. Haste makes waste (急がば回れ). This is probably why it pays to prioritize having fun. When you are keep having fun, you don’t feel like you are preparing (‘leveling up’) for anything. When in fact you are. And it’s easier to keep having fun than keep outperforming. 5-1b1b2a If you follow the Fun Criterion, you’ll be good at things.