“That process…starts upon the supposition that when you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. It may well be that several explanations remain, in which case one tries test after test until one or other of them has a convincing amount of support.” – Sherlock Holmes
Next:
- 1-2g2s7b3 An explanation for how something really works cannot rely on infinity
- E.g., Xeno’s paradox is resolved by seeing what happens in reality. The explanations shouldn’t use the number of points that are an uncountable infinity.
- The error here is in conflating two separate phenomena (mathematical abstract infinity and physical infinity) that happen to have the same name
- E.g., Xeno’s paradox is resolved by seeing what happens in reality. The explanations shouldn’t use the number of points that are an uncountable infinity.
Related:
- 1-1d Usually the obstacles are your own preconceived notions, and rarely the laws of physics
- 1-2g2a The problem of ‘fine-tuning’ should be approached by being honest with what knowledge is, and not anthropocentrically
- 2-1a7a4 In the long run reality gets in; narrative can get you so far
- 2-3a ‘First principles thinking’ - If it’s not forbidden by the laws of physics, it is possible
- 5-1b1a8a When using probability, we need an explanation for why that probability applies, because knowledge is unpredictablerevisit
Contradictory?
E.g.,
- Burry on Greenland (20260121)
- The WSJ had a good graphic out a few days ago showing the trajectory of missiles from ICBM sites around Russia to the US would fly overhead or near Greenland, which also happens to be almost directly beneath where those missiles would reach their highest points (“apogee”) which is when they are most vulnerable to interception because they are traveling at their slowest speeds. And for an intelligently guided missile capable of trying to evade interception, you have an even better chance to shoot it down from a point directly beneath it since that is the closest path to the missile (i.e. least amount of warning time for the missile to realize an interceptor is coming).