“The most ordinary cause of people’s mistakes are their being too much frightened at the present danger, and not enough so at that which is remote.” – Cardinal de Retz
Related:
- 2-1a1a7 ‘Hindsight bias’ - Keep a record of your thoughts at the time you make the decision
- 2-1b2b ‘Second-order thinking’ - Solve the root cause of a problem (prevention) and not symptoms. Be smart-lazy.
- 3-1c3c4.3 “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful”
- 5-1b4a Amara’s law - we expect too much in the short-run, but too little in the long-run
- 5-1b4a0 We overestimate the technological impact in the next 10 years, but underestimate the next 20 (and often right about 15 years later)
- 5-2c2 Fake stuff usually has a sharp peak of seeming to matter
- 13-1a3a1i The market’s encouragement of successful forecasters fosters a relation of final equilibrium between present capital value and actual future rents