“One of the best moments of Dwarkesh’s interview with Satya Nadella was the acknowledgement that all the big software companies are hardware companies now, capital-intensive, and I am not sure the analysts following them even know what maintenance capital expenditure is” – Michael Burry (20260110)
Don’t risk what you have and need, to get what you don’t need—see Warren Buffett (pp. 152-181) on essentiality
When it’s really essential you won’t sell them (e.g., sugar 砂糖 and cholera コロリ)—what’s the implication here?revisit
Related:
- 3-1a0 Use categories, but don’t be categorized
- Pay attention to the whole of triad—particularly, the Plan Structure:
- 2-1a7a5 Build day by day unless anything fundamental (‘the core’) changed. Superficial-uncontrollable criteria (e.g., share price) matter less.
- 3-1a4b4a Financial cycles ≠ Product cycles
- 9-1b You can’t really transfer your knowledge to others, because each knowledge has to be created individuallydevelop
- 10-2g3d1 Humans do stupid things because we can guess and create meanings. Our ability comes with a great cost of potentially doing very (infinitely) stupid things.
- 12-1a2a1 Free markets and free speech, by definition, transcend the concepts of nation-states
- IRL, you need roads (remember Death Stranding):
- 9-4f Product is merit and distribution is connection
- No road, no market, no growth (be it physical or digital)
- 9-4f Product is merit and distribution is connection
- 2-1b2b ‘Second-order thinking’ - Solve the root cause of a problem (prevention) and not symptoms. Be smart-lazy.
- Jack Clark: “I think “economic security is national security,” so making sure we have the infrastructure in place to build out the AI economy will have knock-on positive effects on our industrial base and overall robustness”
- 11-2.1 Fiat money shields ideas from criticism—the cost of bullshit goes down in such economy
- But only to an extent (e.g., according to Michael Green, the new poverty line is now around $140,000 while the median family salary in America is only around 80k as of 20251125)—essentiality cyclically emerges as a part of investment theses (e.g., in commodities)—e.g., see Ludwig von Mises and Murray Rothbard on ABCT
- In Ludwig Lachmann’s parlance, it’s as if the Plan Structure pulls back the Portfolio Structure
- But only to an extent (e.g., according to Michael Green, the new poverty line is now around $140,000 while the median family salary in America is only around 80k as of 20251125)—essentiality cyclically emerges as a part of investment theses (e.g., in commodities)—e.g., see Ludwig von Mises and Murray Rothbard on ABCT
- Fake AI content saturation → irl?revisit
- The topology here is similar to Michael Green example above
- Vibe coding → software saturation → physical stuff will be bid?
- 5-1b1b2b Don’t try to be the best. Be the only.
- Many will try to be the house (e.g., see Mert):
- Software companies are becoming hardware companies
- 2-1c2b Forced vertical integration made Tesla intimately familiar with the complex supply chain required to build a car. Good counter-argument to outsourcing everything.
- What’s the implication for software-hardware stock performance spread?revisit
- Software companies are becoming hardware companies