“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect” – Mark Twain
“Easy choices, hard life. Hard choices, easy life.” – Jerzy Gregorek
If Buffett and Munger weren’t betting on tech, then they were betting on human psychology of others. They took human psychology very seriously.develop
I think liquidity (as in how much notional is traded for that product) is a good indication of mind-share.
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Related:
- 3-1a4b2b What is smart at one price is dumb at another
- 3-1c3c4.1 It’s easy to push a really good idea to wretched excess
- 3-1c3c6 Nerds have an advantage in doing great work because they expend little effort on seeming anything
- 5-1b1b2b Don’t try to be the best. Be the only.
- 5-1b3a In particular, we underestimate how much we can change in the future during and after downturns. Things change.
- 5-1b4a Amara’s law - we expect too much in the short-run, but too little in the long-run
- 5-1b4a0 We overestimate the technological impact in the next 10 years, but underestimate the next 20 (and often right about 15 years later)
- 5-3c Knowledge is irreversible, and can only go from private to public
- 9-4b2a1e Be the outsider - 外部性・外来性を重視すること
- 10-2g1f Imitation = limitation (imitation has limitation)
- If it becomes absurd, just change ships (or be the creator and create the frontier by yourself)
- 2-1b2b1 ‘Inversion’ - Avoid stupid obvious bullshit you’d regret in the future
- 3-1c3c3b Wealth = Measurement (work with a small group) + Leverage (develop new techniques and its value is multiplied by all the people who use it)
- 7-1a2a3 Win at the corner then come back (傾く・バロック)
- 7-1b3d New stars rise along with the new platform
- 10-2g3d1 Humans do stupid things because we can guess and create meanings. Our ability comes with a great cost of potentially doing very (infinitely) stupid things.
- 11-3.3 ‘The law of diminishing returns’ - We can recalibrate the curve so that we are always at the growing phase of the S-curve!develop
- Eccentric ones are hard to “kill” because knowledge is resilient and because knowledge has to be found individually