5-1b2.3 Don’t be the turkey—the Black Swan might be a Grey Swan depending on your perspective

Nassim Taleb on the turkey illusion: “For the turkey, the event at the eve of Thanksgiving is a Black Swan. For the man who has fed the chicken every day, this is not a Black Swan. Don’t be the turkey.”

Related:

• 2-1a0d Don’t confuse the Grey Swans with the Black Swans
• 5-2b5 Theories precede data
• 9-3a Luck-Skill dichotomy is at best arbitrary. We can train our ability to create ‘luck’.
• 11-1b Investment is expression and you need methods and techniques (i.e., knowledge)