3-1c3c4.3 “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful”

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful—the less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we should conduct our own affairs” – Warren Buffett

“A climate of fear is your friend when investing; a euphoric world is your enemy” – Warren Buffett

“Fear is very contagious. It spreads very quickly.” – Warren Buffett

“Most people are too fretful, they worry too much. Success means being very patient, but aggressive when it’s time.” – Charlie Munger

Be very patient.

Because fear and greed are unpredictable diseasesrevisit

Related:

• Louis Pasteur: “Chance favors the prepared mind”
  • 5-2b5 Theories precede data
  • 9-3a Luck-Skill dichotomy is at best arbitrary. We can train our ability to create ‘luck’.
• Otherwise you’ll be one of many when the market forces error-correction en massedevelop
  • 1-1c6a3.1 Really good opportunities aren’t often and won’t last long
  • 5-3c Knowledge is irreversible, and can only go from private to publicdevelop
    • 5-1b3a In particular, we underestimate how much we can change in the future during and after downturns. Things change.
  • 13-1a3a1d Money facilitates the maximum use of knowledge available, and accommodates error-corrections (the two are the same thing)
• It’s way easier to be indexical or iconic than being symbolical
  • 1-2i Brandolini’s Law (the Bullshit Asymmetry Principle)—the amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it
  • 4-1a4b2b Being reactive is like being analog in the heat of the moment
    • 10-2g3d1 Humans do stupid things because we can guess and create meanings. Our ability comes with a great cost of potentially doing very (infinitely) stupid things.
  • 10-1b4c ミメシス is analog-indexical, パロディア is digital-iconical, アナロギア is digital-symbolical
    • 1-2h A good explanation makes it harder to fool yourself
    • 9-1b You can’t really transfer your knowledge to others, because each knowledge has to be created individually
    • 10-2g1f3 We can only figure out what they know by what they do (‘performance’), because we can never directly study what people know (‘competence’). To assert that we can is a common error in thinking.
  • 10-2g1f Imitation = limitation (imitation has limitation)
    • 4-1a4b2d ‘Tendency to want to do something’ - Don’t get paid for work, but for being right.
• 2-1b2b5 Know the correlations between your bets. Holy grail is fifteen or so uncorrelated bets.
• 2-1e Everything is connected in a complex way
• 4-1a4b2e Don’t get started
• 4-1e1 Loss aversion - e.g., the prospect of competitor buying you, and having have to acquire you later at higher cost, are the two biggest concerns which motivate potential acquirers
• 5-1b2.3 Don’t be the turkey—the Black Swan might be a Grey Swan depending on your perspective
• 5-1b4c4 Pay attention to your ‘taboos’ - If there is something you fear unconsciously, you have to face it—and the sooner you solve it the betterdevelop
• 12-1e4 Nothing is objectively and independently good
  • 3-1a4b2b What is smart at one price is dumb at another