“When the well is dry, we know the worth of water” – Benjamin Franklin
Next:
- 9-2a3b0.1 ロスは速攻切る。勝ちポジションは徐々に積み上げていく。損益に対して生じる非対称な行動心理を予め計算に入れておくこと。
- 9-2a3b0.2 Understand the downside 5 to 10 years from now
Related:
- 1-1c6a1c The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absencerevisit
- 2-1a0a1 Don’t waste time unnecessarily complicating things
- 2-1b2b1 ‘Inversion’ - Avoid stupid obvious bullshit you’d regret in the future
- 2-1b2b2 ‘Multiplying by zero’ - Be risk-prone but avoid ruin at all cost
- 3-1d6c1 The marginal cost of doing something wrong ‘just this once’ always seems alluringly low
- E.g., think first about the downside of not being transparent—face the problem, and solve them while you can
- 4-1e1 Loss aversion - e.g., the prospect of competitor buying you, and having have to acquire you later at higher cost, are the two biggest concerns which motivate potential acquirers
- 5-1b4a Amara’s law - we expect too much in the short-run, but too little in the long-run
- 5-2c2a Prioritize bullshit avoidance over money and prestige. Don’t waste your time.
- 5-2c2b2 When you are long bullshit, you are short volatility and time